Volume 64 Number 86
Produced: Sun, 29 Nov 20 16:51:50 -0500
Subjects Discussed In This Issue:
Ad hayom hazeh
[Michael Rogovin]
Corona shortcuts (5)
[Carl Singer Ben Katz, M.D. Orrin Tilevitz Michael Rogovin Ari Trachtenberg]
Forced vaccination
[Irwin Weiss]
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From: Michael Rogovin <michael@...>
Date: Thu, Nov 26,2020 at 09:01 AM
Subject: Ad hayom hazeh
Joel Rich (MJ 64#85) asks whether this phrase means until the time the Torah was
written or forever, and about the implications of each. While obviously there is
no definitive answer, I would suggest the following approach. Until the
industrial and scientific revolutions, there was very little change, or rather,
change was very slow. Life was as it is, as it will be. Yes there were political
changes and every now and then some revolutionary change, but, by and large, the
life of a peasant 3,000 years ago was little different from 2,000 years ago or
1,000 years ago, until well into the 18th century. That is hardly true in the
last 200 years. So our perception of time is very different. People did not
perceive the future as being different from the past. With that perspective,
there is very little difference between the two possible meanings for a reader
in ancient or modern times until the 1800s.
Michael Rogovin
<michael@...>
201.820.5504
www.linkedin.com/in/michaelrogovin
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From: Carl Singer <carl.singer@...>
Date: Wed, Nov 25,2020 at 06:01 AM
Subject: Corona shortcuts
I'm disappointed that we've gotten off to a he-said / she-said discussion pattern.
The fact is that when we look at other countries, such as South Korea, see what
they've done and what the results are, then we should be able to draw reasonable
conclusions.
Suddenly everyone has become a maven.
Carl A. Singer, Ph.D.
Colonel, U.S. Army Retired
70 Howard Avenue
Passaic,
NJ
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From: Ben Katz, M.D.<BKatz@...>
Date: Wed, Nov 25,2020 at 12:01 PM
Subject: Corona shortcuts
Ari Trachtenberg wrote (MJ 64#85):
> Ben Katz wrote (MJ 64#84):
>
>> The question then becomes what is one's chance of getting covid? If one
>> doesn't follow precautions it can be fairly high (eg 10-40% in a family
>> setting).
>
> Where do you get these numbers? There is still scant evidence on the
> effectiveness of any of the prescribed precautions (mask wearing, social
> distancing, lockdowns). Indeed, until around March of this year, the
> widespread belief in the medical community was that masks are ineffective in
> preventing viral transmission. No amazing evidence has come to fore since
> then, only a few mechanistic and observational studies, and some negative
> meta-analyses.
>
>> If one doesn't follow public health guidelines it is going to spread pretty
>> quickly (see what happened at the White House, where despite daily testing
>> there was a superspreader event; no one died but Governor Christie was
>> hospitalized). How are you going to prevent spread, esp to those at risk, if
>> you don't do anything to prevent it (eg, wear a mask and socially distant
>> till there's a vaccine, or take the vaccine once it's available)?
>
> Anecdotal comments aside, there is no evidence that we can do anything to stop
> the spread of COVID. We can temporarily delay it with very painful lockdowns,
> but it spreads easily and exponentially throughout the community as soon as we
> open up.
>
> The rabbis are right to resists the Draconian and unsupported measures from
> the secular leadership. Nothing less than our freedom as Jews is as stake.
I have no time to keep arguing; covid is taking up an extra hour or 2 of my day
every day. If anyone just does a quick Medline search they will see many
articles which document the epidemiology of the spread of covid in families and
other settings as well as evidence going back 100 years to the time of the
so-called Spanish flu re the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Temporary
delay is good so that the health care system is not overwhelmed and people die
for lack of health care; also we are now better at treating covid with new drugs
and techniques, so that delaying the disease has reduced mortality.
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From: Orrin Tilevitz <tilevitzo@...>
Date: Wed, Nov 25,2020 at 11:01 PM
Subject: Corona shortcuts
I thought long and hard before rejoining this discussion but then decided the
principle of lo ta'amod al dam re'echa obligated me to respond to Ari
Trachtenberg's dangerous posting (MJ 64#85) in case any reader was foolish
enough to follow it. If I recall correctly, the underlying discussion was
whether ignorant and irresponsible Jewish clerics were justified in opposing
measures that would prevent spread of the virus.He wrote:
> There is still scant evidence on the effectiveness of any of the prescribed
> precautions (mask wearing, social distancing, lockdowns). Indeed, until
> around March of this year, the widespread belief in the medical community was
> that masks are ineffective in preventing viral transmission.
That in March, scientists "who were encountering this virus for the first
time" were unaware that mask wearing effectively stops the spread of the virus,
while they are very much aware of this today, has no bearing, logically or
otherwise, on whether their current belief that it does is true.
> No amazing evidence has come to fore since then, only a few mechanistic and
> observational studies, and some negative meta-analyses.
AFIK, Ari is correct to the extent that he means that there exist few or no
properly controlled experiments demonstrating that mask wearing impedes spread
of the virus. Any such experiments would likely be unethical. What does exist is
mounds, heaps, of evidence correlating mask wearing and the incidence of the
virus. For example, red (i.e. Republican) states which eschew mask-wearing now
have a far, far higher incidence of the virus than blue (Democratic) areas that
don't, and the same applies to zip codes in New York City where people do, or
did, not mask (e.g. Borough Park) as opposed to zipcodes where they do (Upper
East Side in Manhattan, Windsor Terrace in Brooklyn, etc.). Now, correlation is
not causation, so it is possible "for instance" that some genetic factor
increases the likelihood that one will contract the virus, and that same genetic
factor makes it more likely that one is a Trump supporter. Any takers? Dr.
Anthony Fauci stated, fairly recently, that if everyone were masked, the virus
would disappear, without vaccination,and AFIK it is the universal opinion of
epidemiologists that one's wearing a mask is effective at preventing, at least
to a major degree, the spread of the virus from the mask wearer. Dr.Trachtenberg
is free to disagree, but given the public health emergency, I"m not so sure that
he should be permitted to disseminate his disagreement, or that this list should
enable him to do so.
> Anecdotal comments aside, there is no evidence that we can do anything to stop
> the spread of COVID. We can temporarily delay it with very painful lockdowns,
> but it spreads easily and exponentially throughout the community as soon as we
> open up.
That statement may be true where people don't mask. In any event, see China, New
Zealand and Australia, to name just three countries that disprove this statement.
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From: Michael Rogovin <michael@...>
Date: Thu, Nov 26,2020 at 10:01 AM
Subject: Corona shortcuts
Ari Trachtenberg wrote (MJ 64#85):
> The rabbis are right to resists the Draconian and unsupported measures from
> the secular leadership. Nothing less than our freedom as Jews is as stake.
I find this last statement exaggerated and inflammatory to the point of
hysteria, which regardless of whether I have agreed with Ari in the past or not,
seems out of character and irrational. It has been a very difficult 8 months (as
of this writing). Pesach, Shavuot, Shabbat and daily activities have been
disrupted, families and friends separated, minyans cancelled or severely
restricted. This happened before, in the Flu epidemic following WWI and Judaism
thrived. Other disruptions to Jewish life occurred in the past and Judaism
thrived. There are many Jewish communities that were small and isolated and yet
(even in the absence of the Internet) survived and grew.
I am not minimizing the disruption but to say that our freedom is at stake makes
it sound like the government is targeting us (and religion in general) when in
fact they are targeting mass gatherings indoors of all kinds. It so happens that
other than entertainment, the activities that have the same group of people in
close proximity for long periods where there is talking and singing happen to be
religious services and schools. Malls and retail stores do not usually have
extended contact with the same people.
We cannot prevent the spread of this disease, but given that your activities
threaten me, and that slowing down transmission means fewer people getting it
until vaccines and treatment become available, reasonable precautions against
activities known to spread the virus faster are warranted. Judaism will survive.
Minyans will return. Future seders will be large and joyous for many.
As I write this, word that the US Supreme Court has nullified NY's restrictions
on religious services by a 5-4 decision, the swing vote of course being Justice
Barrett replacing Justice Ginsburg. I have not read the full majority decision,
but it may be that it was the way NY acted rather than acting at all. More
neutral restrictions may survive, but that awaits full analysis. 1st amendment
freedoms are important, but Judaism is not the target and is not the enemy here,
that is the virus. If elements of our community continue to defy regulations, as
Satmar did with a 10,000 attendee wedding with no masks (nothing in Judaism
requires or even recommends such a thing), then who is responsible for the
debilitating disease and deaths that result? What ever happened to saving a life
is saving a world?
Michael Rogovin
<michael@...>
201.820.5504
www.linkedin.com/in/michaelrogovin
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From: Ari Trachtenberg <trachten@...>
Date: Sun, Nov 29,2020 at 03:01 PM
Subject: Corona shortcuts
Various posters have recently expressed concern about the "danger" of my post to
mail-jewish regarding the weak evidence for mask effectiveness in stopping
Coronavirus (among other things).
Let me start by reiterating mail-jewish policy that nothing said on this list
should be construed as practical halacha. I think that it is natural that this
principle apply similarly to medical comments on the list. None of these should
be construed as authoritative - if you find something on the list intriguing, by
all means talk to a rabbi or medical authority that you trust to get an
authoritative opinion upon which to base your personal actions.
Returning to the topic, we have seen time and again in history that there is a
grave danger in taking at face value science that is not properly grounded in
evidence. There is a lot of propaganda floating around, and I think that it's
important to look to primary sources for an informed opinion.
With respect to masks, the Cochrane library is a good place to start for a broad
survey of the current literature:
https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub5/full
Their review found (among other elements):
* "low certainty evidence from nine trials (3507 participants) that wearing a
[medical/surgical] mask may make little or no difference to the outcome of
influenza-like illness (ILI) compared to not wearing a mask"
* "moderate certainty evidence that wearing a [medical/surgical] mask probably
makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory confirmed influenza
compared to not wearing a mask"
* "Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported."
It is true that Randomized Controlled Trials are hard to do in the current
climate, but there was a recent publication out of Denmark
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817
that gave reasonable evidence that masks do not appear to practically protect
the wearer from external contagion (although leaving unaddressed the possibility
that they may protect others from an infectious individual wearing a mask).
Finally, although COVID is a novel Coronavirus, there is a fair amount of
evidence regarding other viruses, for example the following publication (of the
CDC!) regarding flu:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
"Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene or
face masks, evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did
not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza."
In short, I repeat that the evidence of mask effectiveness appears to me to be
scant. It is my personal non-authoritative opinion, that those who feel that
masks are effective in protecting them from COVID and do other potentially
dangerous activities (like not socially distancing indoors) may be taking an
unnecessary risk.
Again, while I am a computer scientist and an engineer, I am not *your* computer
scientist and engineer. If you have a practical question of how to behave, you
should disregard my academic thoughts and follow the advise of the appropriate
professionals that you trust.
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From: Irwin Weiss <irwin@...>
Date: Wed, Nov 25,2020 at 06:01 AM
Subject: Forced vaccination
With regard to the debate between Dr. Katz and Dr. Shinnar (MJ 64#85), on the
one hand, and some other folks on the other hand, I would say this:
I prefer to get my medical advice from doctors and my Halachic opinions from
rabbis. I am neither. I am a lawyer. It drives me nuts when my clients suggest
to me why the civil law is not what it is, based on something their barber or
their grocery clerk told them.
I would note that some very smart scientists, working with the government, were
able in the early 1950s to develop a polio vaccine. People, in general, trusted
the science and trusted the government. My mother (Z"L) lined her kids up and we
stood in line, as did many others, we got our vaccines, and today, there is
almost no polio in the US. Kids still get the vaccine safely. In the late
1970s and early 1980s, some smart scientists were able to eradicate smallpox
globally. There is no more smallpox.
So, I will take my advice from hardworking physicians and scientists, roll
up my sleeve, and take the vaccine. If the vaccine is 94.5% effective,
again not being a scientist, this strikes me as a whole lot more effective
than zero.
Irwin Weiss
Baltimore, MD
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End of Volume 64 Issue 86
